推薦產(chǎn)品
3-(4-chlorophenyl)-4-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole 2-(chloromethyl)-3-methylpyridinehydrochloride 1-(2-bromo-4-methylphenyl)ethanone 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbonitrile 5,8-dichloropyrido[3,2-d]pyridazine 2-bromomalononitrile 2-(4-(bromomethyl)phenyl)benzo[d]thiazole 1-(bromomethyl)-3-methoxy-2-nitrobenzene 6-bromo-1H-[1,2,3]triazolo[4,5-b]pyridine 4-iodo-2-((trimethylsilyloxy)methyl)thiazole 6-iodoimidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-carbonitrile 2-(4-chlorophenyl)-2-morpholinoacetonitrile 4-chloro-7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidine 4-chloroisothiazole 5-bromo-6-chloro-1H-indole 7-chloro-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine ethyl3-(4-formylphenyl)propanoate 2,3-dibromobenzaldehyde 1-(5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-7-yl)ethanone 5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-5-one 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbaldehyde (E)-2-(3-oxoprop-1-enyl)benzaldehyde methyl4-formyl-3-nitrobenzoate 5,6-dimethoxy-2,2-dimethyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-inden-1-one 1-methylbicyclo[4.1.0]heptan-3-one 3-nitro-4-(trifluoromethoxy)benzaldehyde 2-hydroxyquinoline-6-carbaldehyde 2-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)benzaldehyde 1-(2-fluoro-4-methoxyphenyl)propan-2-one tert-butyl3-fluoro-4-oxopiperidine-1-carboxylate tert-butyl3-oxopropylcarbamate 2,2-dimethylcyclohexanone 9H-carbazole-3-carbaldehyde N,N-dimethyl-2-oxoacetamide 2-methylpent-4-yn-2-ol 3-tert-butyl-4-hydroxybenzonitrile 4-bromo-2-tert-butylphenol 1,3-dibutoxypropan-2-ol methyl4-hydroxyquinoline-6-carboxylate methyl3-cyano-4-hydroxybenzoate 4-chloro-6-methoxyquinolin-7-ol 3,4-dihydro-2H-benzo[b][1,4]oxazin-7-ol 2-(2-aminothiazol-5-yl)ethanolhydrochloride (R)-ethyl2-chloropropanoate (S)-4-amino-5-(4,4-dimethylcyclohexylamino)-5-oxopentanoicacid (1s,4s)-4-hydroxycyclohexanecarboxylicacid (S)-2-(tetrahydrofuran-3-yloxy)aceticacid (1S,4R)-1-methyl-4-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-2-enol (R)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one (S)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one 化工資訊 原標(biāo)題：“化肥行業(yè)冬儲(chǔ)動(dòng)態(tài)報(bào)告:春耕需求終將釋放,磷肥價(jià)格穩(wěn)中小漲”
環(huán)保疊加產(chǎn)能淘汰,化肥行業(yè)整體運(yùn)行相對有序。無論是磷銨還是尿素,由于過去高速擴(kuò)產(chǎn),行業(yè)內(nèi)呈現(xiàn)了較為明顯的產(chǎn)能過剩狀態(tài),而從2016年開始,我國在環(huán)境保護(hù)方面要求顯著提升,落后產(chǎn)能逐步退出市場,化肥行業(yè)整體的產(chǎn)能過剩狀態(tài)有了明顯的改善,氮肥及磷肥產(chǎn)量持續(xù)下滑,整體行業(yè)進(jìn)入相對有序的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)。
受成本端價(jià)格支撐,化肥產(chǎn)品價(jià)格位居高位,盈利良好。2018年以來化肥上游原材料合成氨、硫磺、磷礦石等產(chǎn)品價(jià)格整體位居高位,從生產(chǎn)端有效地支撐了化肥價(jià)格的提升,至10月份,化肥價(jià)格已經(jīng)位于歷史高位,超越了2017年冬儲(chǔ)行情的高位價(jià)格,市場呈現(xiàn)供需微幅偏緊的狀態(tài),企業(yè)的盈利水平狀況基本良好。
磷肥成本支撐力度依舊,價(jià)格穩(wěn)中小漲的可能性較高。自10月下旬以來,受到油價(jià)下跌的關(guān)聯(lián)影響,磷銨的上游原材料呈現(xiàn)下調(diào)趨勢,然而繼10月份磷礦價(jià)格提價(jià)之后,12月份磷礦石價(jià)格再度上漲,基本填平其他原料價(jià)格下調(diào)空間,成本端支撐力度依舊。由于冬季部分磷礦停產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致供給小幅下滑,在供需緊平衡的條件下,磷肥供給預(yù)期有所下降,將帶動(dòng)磷肥價(jià)格穩(wěn)中有漲。
春耕采購需求終將釋放,但價(jià)格上漲預(yù)期相對有限。由于化肥價(jià)格位居高位,下游冬儲(chǔ)采購?fù)七t將是大概率事件,然而化肥下游為剛性需求,春耕前需求終將釋放,預(yù)期未來采購或?qū)⑾鄬ζ骄彙，F(xiàn)階段下游復(fù)合肥價(jià)格已達(dá)到歷史相對高位,盈利空間并不充足,且下游糧食價(jià)格未有好轉(zhuǎn),我們判斷復(fù)合肥價(jià)格上漲空間有限,其上游化肥的價(jià)格大幅上漲可能性相對較低,往年冬儲(chǔ)的價(jià)格暴漲的盛況預(yù)期難以再現(xiàn)。
