推薦產(chǎn)品
3-(4-chlorophenyl)-4-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole 2-(chloromethyl)-3-methylpyridinehydrochloride 1-(2-bromo-4-methylphenyl)ethanone 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbonitrile 5,8-dichloropyrido[3,2-d]pyridazine 2-bromomalononitrile 2-(4-(bromomethyl)phenyl)benzo[d]thiazole 1-(bromomethyl)-3-methoxy-2-nitrobenzene 6-bromo-1H-[1,2,3]triazolo[4,5-b]pyridine 4-iodo-2-((trimethylsilyloxy)methyl)thiazole 6-iodoimidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-carbonitrile 2-(4-chlorophenyl)-2-morpholinoacetonitrile 4-chloro-7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidine 4-chloroisothiazole 5-bromo-6-chloro-1H-indole 7-chloro-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine ethyl3-(4-formylphenyl)propanoate 2,3-dibromobenzaldehyde 1-(5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-7-yl)ethanone 5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-5-one 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbaldehyde (E)-2-(3-oxoprop-1-enyl)benzaldehyde methyl4-formyl-3-nitrobenzoate 5,6-dimethoxy-2,2-dimethyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-inden-1-one 1-methylbicyclo[4.1.0]heptan-3-one 3-nitro-4-(trifluoromethoxy)benzaldehyde 2-hydroxyquinoline-6-carbaldehyde 2-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)benzaldehyde 1-(2-fluoro-4-methoxyphenyl)propan-2-one tert-butyl3-fluoro-4-oxopiperidine-1-carboxylate tert-butyl3-oxopropylcarbamate 2,2-dimethylcyclohexanone 9H-carbazole-3-carbaldehyde N,N-dimethyl-2-oxoacetamide 2-methylpent-4-yn-2-ol 3-tert-butyl-4-hydroxybenzonitrile 4-bromo-2-tert-butylphenol 1,3-dibutoxypropan-2-ol methyl4-hydroxyquinoline-6-carboxylate methyl3-cyano-4-hydroxybenzoate 4-chloro-6-methoxyquinolin-7-ol 3,4-dihydro-2H-benzo[b][1,4]oxazin-7-ol 2-(2-aminothiazol-5-yl)ethanolhydrochloride (R)-ethyl2-chloropropanoate (S)-4-amino-5-(4,4-dimethylcyclohexylamino)-5-oxopentanoicacid (1s,4s)-4-hydroxycyclohexanecarboxylicacid (S)-2-(tetrahydrofuran-3-yloxy)aceticacid (1S,4R)-1-methyl-4-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-2-enol (R)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one (S)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one 化工資訊 經(jīng)過1月以來(lái)的上漲后，雖然國(guó)內(nèi)白糖價(jià)差被壓縮，但是價(jià)格排列形式仍維持不變，因此我們還不能就此認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)熊市大格局已經(jīng)逆轉(zhuǎn)。無(wú)論是現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格還是期貨價(jià)格，5200元/噸都是重要關(guān)口，在沒有明顯超預(yù)期因素的情況下，糖價(jià)將進(jìn)入到大幅波動(dòng)階段。
供需形勢(shì)仍不樂觀
2018/2019榨季，全球食糖產(chǎn)量下降，不過仍供應(yīng)過剩，市場(chǎng)仍需要低價(jià)去庫(kù)存。2018/2019榨季，ISO預(yù)計(jì)全球食糖產(chǎn)量由2017/2018榨季的1.83億噸下降至1.80億噸，USDA預(yù)計(jì)全球食糖產(chǎn)量由1.95億噸下降至1.86億噸。雖然產(chǎn)量同比明顯下降，但是由于消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)有限，市場(chǎng)仍供應(yīng)過剩，ISO預(yù)計(jì)2018/2019榨季全球食糖供應(yīng)過剩217萬(wàn)噸，USDA預(yù)期過剩905萬(wàn)噸，Green Pool預(yù)計(jì)過剩360萬(wàn)噸，研究機(jī)構(gòu)Kingsman預(yù)計(jì)過剩985萬(wàn)噸。目前紐約原糖價(jià)格已經(jīng)跌至全球最有效率的生產(chǎn)者成本以下以促使產(chǎn)糖國(guó)進(jìn)一步削減產(chǎn)量，不過，由于各主產(chǎn)國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)政策差異較大，削減產(chǎn)量的步伐并不一致。
2018/2019榨季，預(yù)計(jì)國(guó)內(nèi)食糖產(chǎn)量1070萬(wàn)噸，消費(fèi)量1500萬(wàn)噸，產(chǎn)需缺口430萬(wàn)噸，進(jìn)口量預(yù)計(jì)為280萬(wàn)噸，由于存在古巴糖直接供應(yīng)市場(chǎng)、國(guó)儲(chǔ)糖拍賣以及甘蔗直補(bǔ)等預(yù)期影響，2018/2019榨季國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)供需形勢(shì)較2017/2018榨季更加悲觀。
整體而言，印度提高食糖最低售價(jià)使得其出口成本在邊際上上移導(dǎo)致紐約原糖價(jià)格上漲已經(jīng)塵埃落定，廣西出臺(tái)的各項(xiàng)穩(wěn)糖價(jià)政策使現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格止跌企穩(wěn)，期貨價(jià)格順勢(shì)跟隨配額外進(jìn)口成本上升而上漲，國(guó)內(nèi)糖價(jià)第一輪上漲宣告結(jié)束，后市能否掀起第二輪上漲高潮，主要看補(bǔ)庫(kù)行為能否順利向產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈下游傳導(dǎo)。但是在近期現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)充足、遠(yuǎn)期生產(chǎn)成本下降的背景下，特別是在現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格已經(jīng)回升至5200元/噸這一重要關(guān)口以后，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈補(bǔ)庫(kù)行為還沒有有效傳遞到下游，支撐現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲的驅(qū)動(dòng)力在減弱，白糖期價(jià)在5200元/噸附近將進(jìn)入到大幅波動(dòng)階段。
